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BKV Előre vs Martfűi LSE — NB III - Southeast 2023

BKV Előre
BKV Előre
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Martfűi LSE
Martfűi LSE
4/27/2025NB III - SoutheastNB III - Southeast · Southeast - 26BKV Előre Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

BKV Előre50%
×Draw23%
Martfűi LSE28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BKV Előre
1.85
Martfűi LSE
1.33

BKV Előre creates 39% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

creates per match

BKV Előre
1.51
Martfűi LSE
1.07

allows per match

BKV Előre
1.58
Martfűi LSE
2.18

finishing

BKV Előre+0.00on par
Martfűi LSE+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BKV Előre ↓

Martfűi LSE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

BKV Előre or draw
72%
BKV Előre or Martfűi LSE
77%
Draw or Martfűi LSE
50%

Winning margin

BKV Előre wins by 2+
28%
Martfűi LSE wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

BKV Előre 1+ goals
84%
BKV Előre 2+ goals
55%
BKV Előre 3+ goals
28%
Martfűi LSE 1+ goals
74%
Martfűi LSE 2+ goals
38%
Martfűi LSE 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

BKV Előre (draw refunded)
64%
Martfűi LSE (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BKV Előre at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.58 · 45 matches

Martfűi LSE away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.18 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BKV Előre attack 1.51 + Martfűi LSE defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.85

Martfűi LSE attack 1.07 + BKV Előre defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

BKV Előre scores more
50%
level
23%
Martfűi LSE scores more
28%

BKV Előre at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "BKV Előre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southeast: BKV Előre 2–0 Martfűi LSE

BKV Előre beat Martfűi LSE 2-0 in NB III - Southeast on April 27, 2025.

The match was played at BKV Előre Stadion in Budapest.