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Marsonia vs Jadran Poreč — Second NL 2022

Marsonia
Marsonia
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Jadran Poreč
Jadran Poreč
S. Mahmutovic 84', 63' (pen)
M. Bacic 34'
I. Macan 67', 9'
4/1/2023Second NLSecond NL · Round 21ŠRC Stanko Vlainić-Dida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Marsonia56%
×Draw21%
Jadran Poreč23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marsonia
2.16
Jadran Poreč
1.34

Marsonia creates 61% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

creates per match

Marsonia
1.58
Jadran Poreč
1.00

allows per match

Marsonia
1.69
Jadran Poreč
2.73

finishing

Marsonia+0.00on par
Jadran Poreč+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marsonia ↓

Jadran Poreč →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Marsonia or draw
77%
Marsonia or Jadran Poreč
79%
Draw or Jadran Poreč
44%

Winning margin

Marsonia wins by 2+
34%
Jadran Poreč wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Marsonia 1+ goals
88%
Marsonia 2+ goals
63%
Marsonia 3+ goals
36%
Jadran Poreč 1+ goals
74%
Jadran Poreč 2+ goals
39%
Jadran Poreč 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Marsonia (draw refunded)
70%
Jadran Poreč (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marsonia at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.69 · 45 matches

Jadran Poreč away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.73 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marsonia attack 1.58 + Jadran Poreč defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.16

Jadran Poreč attack 1.00 + Marsonia defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Marsonia scores more
56%
level
21%
Jadran Poreč scores more
23%

Marsonia at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Marsonia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
I. Macan
34'
M. Bacic
63'
S. MahmutovicPenalty
67'
I. Macan
84'
S. Mahmutovic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second NL: Marsonia 3–2 Jadran Poreč

Marsonia beat Jadran Poreč 3-2 in Second NL on April 1, 2023.

Goals: I. Macan (9', 67'), M. Bacic (34'), S. Mahmutovic (63' pen, 84').

The match was played at ŠRC Stanko Vlainić-Dida in Slavonski Brod.