Jadran Poreč 1–3 Marsonia: Result & Stats

Jadran Poreč

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Marsonia

Unknown 90+3'

T. Valentic 90+3'

I. Didovic 56'

M. Bacic 42'

6/1/2024

Second NL · Round 30Stadion Veli Jože

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Jadran Poreč48%

×Draw22%

Marsonia29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jadran PorečExpected goals in this matchMarsonia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.46

Jadran Poreč

1.92

Marsonia

1.46

Jadran Poreč creates 32% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

1.49

creates per match

1.36

1.56

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

Jadran Poreč

1.49

Marsonia

1.36

allows per match

Jadran Poreč

1.56

Marsonia

2.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jadran Poreč+0.00on par

Marsonia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jadran Poreč ↓

Marsonia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Jadran Poreč or draw

71%

Jadran Poreč or Marsonia

78%

Draw or Marsonia

52%

Winning margin

Jadran Poreč wins by 2+

27%

Marsonia wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Jadran Poreč 1+ goals

85%

Jadran Poreč 2+ goals

57%

Jadran Poreč 3+ goals

30%

Marsonia 1+ goals

77%

Marsonia 2+ goals

43%

Marsonia 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Jadran Poreč (draw refunded)

62%

Marsonia (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jadran Poreč at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.56 · 45 matches

Marsonia away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.36 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jadran Poreč attack 1.49 + Marsonia defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.92

Marsonia attack 1.36 + Jadran Poreč defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Jadran Poreč scores more

48%

level

22%

Marsonia scores more

29%

Jadran Poreč at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Jadran Poreč will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

M. Bacic

56'

I. Didovic

90+3'

T. Valentic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff