Marsonia 2–3 Hrvatski Dragovoljac: Result & Stats

Marsonia

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 3

Hrvatski Dragovoljac

11/2/2024

Second NL · Round 11ŠRC Stanko Vlainić-Dida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Marsonia45%

×Draw24%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MarsoniaExpected goals in this matchHrvatski Dragovoljac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.35

Marsonia

1.69

Hrvatski Dragovoljac

1.35

Marsonia creates 25% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

1.58

creates per match

1.02

1.69

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Marsonia

1.58

Hrvatski Dragovoljac

1.02

allows per match

Marsonia

1.69

Hrvatski Dragovoljac

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marsonia+0.00on par

Hrvatski Dragovoljac+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marsonia ↓

Hrvatski Dragovoljac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Marsonia or draw

69%

Marsonia or Hrvatski Dragovoljac

76%

Draw or Hrvatski Dragovoljac

55%

Winning margin

Marsonia wins by 2+

24%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Marsonia 1+ goals

82%

Marsonia 2+ goals

50%

Marsonia 3+ goals

24%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac 1+ goals

74%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac 2+ goals

39%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Marsonia (draw refunded)

60%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marsonia at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.69 · 45 matches

Hrvatski Dragovoljac away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.80 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marsonia attack 1.58 + Hrvatski Dragovoljac defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.69

Hrvatski Dragovoljac attack 1.02 + Marsonia defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Marsonia scores more

45%

level

24%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac scores more

31%

Marsonia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Marsonia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff