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Hrvatski Dragovoljac vs Marsonia — Second NL 2022

Hrvatski Dragovoljac
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Marsonia
Marsonia
M. Soplanda 79'
L. Pliso 57'
T. Janusic 42'
J. Soljic 36'
S. Sanogo 5'
B. Kokotovic 90+1'
5/2/2025Second NLSecond NL · Round 26Stadion NŠC Stjepan Spajić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Hrvatski Dragovoljac48%
×Draw23%
Marsonia29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hrvatski Dragovoljac
1.79
Marsonia
1.33

Hrvatski Dragovoljac creates 35% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

creates per match

Hrvatski Dragovoljac
1.22
Marsonia
1.36

allows per match

Hrvatski Dragovoljac
1.31
Marsonia
2.36

finishing

Hrvatski Dragovoljac+0.00on par
Marsonia+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hrvatski Dragovoljac ↓

Marsonia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Hrvatski Dragovoljac or draw
71%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac or Marsonia
77%
Draw or Marsonia
52%

Winning margin

Hrvatski Dragovoljac wins by 2+
26%
Marsonia wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hrvatski Dragovoljac 1+ goals
83%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac 2+ goals
53%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac 3+ goals
26%
Marsonia 1+ goals
74%
Marsonia 2+ goals
38%
Marsonia 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Hrvatski Dragovoljac (draw refunded)
63%
Marsonia (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hrvatski Dragovoljac at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.31 · 45 matches

Marsonia away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.36 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hrvatski Dragovoljac attack 1.22 + Marsonia defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.79

Marsonia attack 1.36 + Hrvatski Dragovoljac defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Hrvatski Dragovoljac scores more
48%
level
23%
Marsonia scores more
29%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Hrvatski Dragovoljac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
S. Sanogo
36'
J. Soljic
42'
T. Janusic
57'
L. Pliso
79'
M. Soplanda
90+1'
B. Kokotovic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second NL: Hrvatski Dragovoljac 5–1 Marsonia

Hrvatski Dragovoljac beat Marsonia 5-1 in Second NL on May 2, 2025.

Goals: S. Sanogo (5'), J. Soljic (36'), T. Janusic (42'), L. Pliso (57'), M. Soplanda (79'), B. Kokotovic (90+1').

The match was played at Stadion NŠC Stjepan Spajić in Zagreb.