Marsonia 0–3 Dugo Selo: Result & Stats | Second NL

Marsonia

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Dugo Selo

Unknown 39'

10/5/2024

Second NL · Round 7ŠRC Stanko Vlainić-Dida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Marsonia42%

×Draw24%

Dugo Selo34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MarsoniaExpected goals in this matchDugo Selo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.47

Marsonia

1.65

Dugo Selo

1.47

Marsonia creates 12% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 60 away

1.58

creates per match

1.25

1.69

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Marsonia

1.58

Dugo Selo

1.25

allows per match

Marsonia

1.69

Dugo Selo

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marsonia+0.00on par

Dugo Selo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marsonia ↓

Dugo Selo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Marsonia or draw

66%

Marsonia or Dugo Selo

76%

Draw or Dugo Selo

58%

Winning margin

Marsonia wins by 2+

21%

Dugo Selo wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Marsonia 1+ goals

81%

Marsonia 2+ goals

49%

Marsonia 3+ goals

23%

Dugo Selo 1+ goals

77%

Dugo Selo 2+ goals

43%

Dugo Selo 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Marsonia (draw refunded)

55%

Dugo Selo (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marsonia at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.69 · 45 matches

Dugo Selo away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.72 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marsonia attack 1.58 + Dugo Selo defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.65

Dugo Selo attack 1.25 + Marsonia defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Marsonia scores more

42%

level

24%

Dugo Selo scores more

34%

Marsonia at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Marsonia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff