Dugo Selo 0–4 Marsonia: Result & Stats | Second NL

Dugo Selo

FT

0 – 4

Marsonia

6/3/2023

Second NL · Round 30Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Dugo Selo49%

×Draw23%

Marsonia28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dugo SeloExpected goals in this matchMarsonia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.35

Dugo Selo

1.85

Marsonia

1.35

Dugo Selo creates 37% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 45 away

1.35

creates per match

1.36

1.33

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

Dugo Selo

1.35

Marsonia

1.36

allows per match

Dugo Selo

1.33

Marsonia

2.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dugo Selo+0.00on par

Marsonia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dugo Selo ↓

Marsonia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Dugo Selo or draw

72%

Dugo Selo or Marsonia

77%

Draw or Marsonia

51%

Winning margin

Dugo Selo wins by 2+

27%

Marsonia wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Dugo Selo 1+ goals

84%

Dugo Selo 2+ goals

55%

Dugo Selo 3+ goals

28%

Marsonia 1+ goals

74%

Marsonia 2+ goals

39%

Marsonia 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Dugo Selo (draw refunded)

64%

Marsonia (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dugo Selo at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.33 · 60 matches

Marsonia away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.36 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dugo Selo attack 1.35 + Marsonia defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.85

Marsonia attack 1.36 + Dugo Selo defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Dugo Selo scores more

49%

level

23%

Marsonia scores more

28%

Dugo Selo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Dugo Selo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff