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Marsonia vs Bjelovar — Second NL 2022

Marsonia
Marsonia
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Bjelovar
Bjelovar
T. Barisic 57'
L. Fernandes Dos Passos 55'
5/25/2024Second NLSecond NL · Round 29ŠRC Stanko Vlainić-Dida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Marsonia40%
×Draw25%
Bjelovar36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marsonia
1.52
Bjelovar
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 59 away

creates per match

Marsonia
1.58
Bjelovar
1.19

allows per match

Marsonia
1.69
Bjelovar
1.47

finishing

Marsonia+0.00on par
Bjelovar+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marsonia ↓

Bjelovar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Marsonia or draw
64%
Marsonia or Bjelovar
75%
Draw or Bjelovar
60%

Winning margin

Marsonia wins by 2+
19%
Bjelovar wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Marsonia 1+ goals
78%
Marsonia 2+ goals
45%
Marsonia 3+ goals
20%
Bjelovar 1+ goals
76%
Bjelovar 2+ goals
42%
Bjelovar 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Marsonia (draw refunded)
52%
Bjelovar (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marsonia at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.69 · 45 matches

Bjelovar away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.47 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marsonia attack 1.58 + Bjelovar defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.52

Bjelovar attack 1.19 + Marsonia defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Marsonia scores more
40%
level
25%
Bjelovar scores more
36%

Marsonia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Marsonia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'
L. Fernandes Dos Passos
57'
T. Barisic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second NL: Marsonia 0–2 Bjelovar

Bjelovar beat Marsonia 2-0 in Second NL on May 25, 2024.

Goals: L. Fernandes Dos Passos (55'), T. Barisic (57').

The match was played at ŠRC Stanko Vlainić-Dida in Slavonski Brod.