Bjelovar 2–0 Marsonia: Result & Stats | Second NL

Bjelovar

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Marsonia

A. Coha 35'

F. Kozaric 15'

5/7/2023

Second NL · Round 26Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Bjelovar56%

×Draw21%

Marsonia23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BjelovarExpected goals in this matchMarsonia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.31

Bjelovar

2.12

Marsonia

1.31

Bjelovar creates 62% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 45 away

1.88

creates per match

1.36

1.27

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

Bjelovar

1.88

Marsonia

1.36

allows per match

Bjelovar

1.27

Marsonia

2.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bjelovar+0.00on par

Marsonia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bjelovar ↓

Marsonia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Bjelovar or draw

77%

Bjelovar or Marsonia

79%

Draw or Marsonia

44%

Winning margin

Bjelovar wins by 2+

34%

Marsonia wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Bjelovar 1+ goals

88%

Bjelovar 2+ goals

62%

Bjelovar 3+ goals

35%

Marsonia 1+ goals

73%

Marsonia 2+ goals

38%

Marsonia 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Bjelovar (draw refunded)

70%

Marsonia (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bjelovar at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.27 · 60 matches

Marsonia away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.36 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bjelovar attack 1.88 + Marsonia defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.12

Marsonia attack 1.36 + Bjelovar defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Bjelovar scores more

56%

level

21%

Marsonia scores more

23%

Bjelovar at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Bjelovar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

F. Kozaric

35'

A. Coha

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff