Marseille W 2–6 Lyon W: Result & Stats

Marseille W

FT

2 – 6

HT: 0 – 2

Lyon W

M. Herrera Monge 65'

M. Le Mouel 59' (pen)

J. Brand 82'

V. Becho 57'

D. M. Dumornay 55'

T. Chawinga 51', 45'

K. Shrader 33'

2/21/2026

Feminine Division 1 · Round 16Stade Roger Lebert

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Marseille W5%

×Draw11%

Lyon W84%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Marseille WExpected goals in this matchLyon W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.66

3.02

Marseille W

0.66

Lyon W

3.02

Lyon W creates 358% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 85 away

0.82

creates per match

3.55

2.50

allows per match

0.49

creates per match

Marseille W

0.82

Lyon W

3.55

allows per match

Marseille W

2.50

Lyon W

0.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marseille W+0.00on par

Lyon W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marseille W ↓

Lyon W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–18%

0–212%

0–312%

0–49%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–28%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–12%

2–23%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Marseille W or draw

16%

Marseille W or Lyon W

89%

Draw or Lyon W

95%

Winning margin

Marseille W wins by 2+

1%

Lyon W wins by 2+

65%

Team goals

Marseille W 1+ goals

48%

Marseille W 2+ goals

14%

Marseille W 3+ goals

3%

Lyon W 1+ goals

95%

Lyon W 2+ goals

80%

Lyon W 3+ goals

57%

Draw no bet

Marseille W (draw refunded)

6%

Lyon W (draw refunded)

94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marseille W at home — creates 0.82, concedes 2.50 · 22 matches

Lyon W away — creates 3.55, concedes 0.49 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marseille W attack 0.82 + Lyon W defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.66

Lyon W attack 3.55 + Marseille W defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 3.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Marseille W scores more

5%

level

11%

Lyon W scores more

84%

Lyon W at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Lyon W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

T. Chawinga

Lyon W · F

10.0

Match Events

20'

31'

33'

40'

45'

T. Chawinga↳ L. Heaps

46'

D. M. Dumornay← L. Yohannes

46'

J. Brand← K. Diani

46'

V. Becho← A. Hegerberg

46'

D. Egurrola← L. Heaps

51'

T. Chawinga↳ K. Shrader

55'

D. M. Dumornay↳ T. Chawinga

57'

V. Becho↳ T. Chawinga

59'

M. Le MouelPenalty

60'

N. Bamenga← S. Cabezas

60'

I. Kbida← M. Le Mouel

60'

M. Katoto← T. Chawinga

65'

M. Herrera Monge↳ J. Perret

68'

Damaris Berta Egurrola

82'

J. Brand↳ S. Svava

88'

M. Moryl← L. Bourgouin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MarseilleLyon

Overview

29%Possession71%

6Total Shots17

2Corners8

9Fouls13

Shots

6Total Shots17

3On Target11

2Off Target5

1Blocked1

4Inside Box15

2Outside Box2

Passing

29%Possession71%

226Total Passes548

145Accurate Passes480

64%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls13

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides4