Marseille W 0–8 Lyon W: Result & Stats

Marseille W

FT

0 – 8

HT: 0 – 2

Lyon W

D. Marozsan 89' (pen), 73'

N. Feller 67'

W. Renard 64', 40' (pen)

N. Parris 60'

G. Mbock 49'

S. Kumagai 15'

2/8/2020

Feminine Division 1 · Round 15Stade Paul Le Cesne

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Marseille W5%

×Draw11%

Lyon W84%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Marseille WExpected goals in this matchLyon W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.66

3.02

Marseille W

0.66

Lyon W

3.02

Lyon W creates 358% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 85 away

0.82

creates per match

3.55

2.50

allows per match

0.49

creates per match

Marseille W

0.82

Lyon W

3.55

allows per match

Marseille W

2.50

Lyon W

0.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marseille W+0.00on par

Lyon W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marseille W ↓

Lyon W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–18%

0–212%

0–312%

0–49%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–28%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–12%

2–23%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Marseille W or draw

16%

Marseille W or Lyon W

89%

Draw or Lyon W

95%

Winning margin

Marseille W wins by 2+

1%

Lyon W wins by 2+

65%

Team goals

Marseille W 1+ goals

48%

Marseille W 2+ goals

14%

Marseille W 3+ goals

3%

Lyon W 1+ goals

95%

Lyon W 2+ goals

80%

Lyon W 3+ goals

57%

Draw no bet

Marseille W (draw refunded)

6%

Lyon W (draw refunded)

94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marseille W at home — creates 0.82, concedes 2.50 · 22 matches

Lyon W away — creates 3.55, concedes 0.49 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marseille W attack 0.82 + Lyon W defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.66

Lyon W attack 3.55 + Marseille W defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 3.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Marseille W scores more

5%

level

11%

Lyon W scores more

84%

Lyon W at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Lyon W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

S. Kumagai

40'

W. RenardPenalty

49'

G. Mbock

60'

N. Parris

61'

S. van de Sanden← D. Cascarino

61'

64'

64'

64'

67'

73'

80'

Jéssica da Silva← A. Majri

84'

S. Altunkulak← N. Coton-Pelagie

89'

D. MarozsanPenalty

Marseille

Lyon

16

Bouhaddi

3

⚽2

Renard

2

Bronze

15

Greenwood

29

⚽

Mbock

6

Henry

5

⚽

Kumagai

10

⚽2

Marozsan

7

▼

Majri

17

⚽

▼

Parris

20

▼

1

22

17

7

▼

20

8

9

23

14

▼

Perret

11

▼

Caputo

12

Cardia

Manager: C. Parra

64'▲C. Gherbi←▼J. Perret

64'▲A. Conesa←▼C. Caputo

84'▲S. Altunkulak←▼N. Coton-Pelagie

Marseille W substitutes

6Gherbi18Conesa2Altunkulak3Maetz10Palacin30Fiordaliso

Manager: J. Vasseur

61'▲S. van de Sanden←▼D. Cascarino

61'▲N. Feller←▼N. Parris

80'▲Jéssica da Silva←▼A. Majri

Lyon W substitutes

11Sanden12Feller19Silva1Weiß4Bacha23Cayman24Ntambwe