Marseille vs Estac Troyes — Ligue 1 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 38+ matches
Marseille57%
Estac Troyes21%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Marseille creates 74% more chances
Season form · 120 home / 38 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over62
- Under38
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes60
- No40
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Marseille ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Marseille at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.17 · 120 matches
Estac Troyes away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.24 · 38 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Marseille attack 1.83 + Estac Troyes defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.04
Estac Troyes attack 1.16 + Marseille defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.17
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 57%?"
Marseille at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 57% does not mean "Marseille will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Paris Saint Germain
Lille
Lyon
Saint EtienneMarseille
Montpellier
Nice
Reims
Nimes
Rennes
Strasbourg
Nantes
Angers
Bordeaux
Amiens
Toulouse
Monaco
Dijon
Caen
GuingampIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Marseille host Estac Troyes on Sunday, 28 November 2021 at 19:45. The match is part of the Ligue 1 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Marseille vs Estac Troyes
Marseille beat Estac Troyes 1-0 in Ligue 1 on November 28, 2021.
Goals: Pol Lirola (74').
Marseille controlled possession (56%) and registered 14 shots to 5.
The match was played at Orange Vélodrome in Marseille.