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Estac Troyes vs Marseille — Ligue 1 2018

Estac Troyes
Estac Troyes
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Marseille
Marseille
4/15/2018Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 33Stade de l'Aube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Estac Troyes30%
×Draw26%
Marseille43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estac Troyes
1.14
Marseille
1.42

Marseille creates 25% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 122 away

creates per match

Estac Troyes
1.00
Marseille
1.49

allows per match

Estac Troyes
1.35
Marseille
1.28

finishing

Estac Troyes+0.00on par
Marseille+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estac Troyes ↓

Marseille →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Estac Troyes or draw
57%
Estac Troyes or Marseille
74%
Draw or Marseille
70%

Winning margin

Estac Troyes wins by 2+
12%
Marseille wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Estac Troyes 1+ goals
68%
Estac Troyes 2+ goals
32%
Estac Troyes 3+ goals
11%
Marseille 1+ goals
76%
Marseille 2+ goals
41%
Marseille 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Estac Troyes (draw refunded)
41%
Marseille (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estac Troyes at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.35 · 40 matches

Marseille away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.28 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estac Troyes attack 1.00 + Marseille defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.14

Marseille attack 1.49 + Estac Troyes defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Estac Troyes scores more
30%
level
26%
Marseille scores more
43%

Marseille at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Marseille will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Estac Troyes 2–3 Marseille

Marseille beat Estac Troyes 3-2 in Ligue 1 on April 15, 2018.

The match was played at Stade de l'Aube in Troyes.