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Maritzburg Utd vs Mamelodi Sundowns — Premier Soccer League 2018

Maritzburg Utd
Maritzburg Utd
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Mamelodi Sundowns
Mamelodi Sundowns
3/5/2022Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 17Harry Gwala Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Maritzburg Utd24%
×Draw29%
Mamelodi Sundowns48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maritzburg Utd
0.82
Mamelodi Sundowns
1.29

Mamelodi Sundowns creates 57% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 119 away

creates per match

Maritzburg Utd
1.03
Mamelodi Sundowns
1.54

allows per match

Maritzburg Utd
1.04
Mamelodi Sundowns
0.62

finishing

Maritzburg Utd+0.00on par
Mamelodi Sundowns+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maritzburg Utd ↓

Mamelodi Sundowns →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–116%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Maritzburg Utd or draw
52%
Maritzburg Utd or Mamelodi Sundowns
71%
Draw or Mamelodi Sundowns
76%

Winning margin

Maritzburg Utd wins by 2+
7%
Mamelodi Sundowns wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Maritzburg Utd 1+ goals
56%
Maritzburg Utd 2+ goals
20%
Maritzburg Utd 3+ goals
5%
Mamelodi Sundowns 1+ goals
72%
Mamelodi Sundowns 2+ goals
37%
Mamelodi Sundowns 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Maritzburg Utd (draw refunded)
33%
Mamelodi Sundowns (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maritzburg Utd at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.04 · 77 matches

Mamelodi Sundowns away — creates 1.54, concedes 0.62 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maritzburg Utd attack 1.03 + Mamelodi Sundowns defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.82

Mamelodi Sundowns attack 1.54 + Maritzburg Utd defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Maritzburg Utd scores more
24%
level
29%
Mamelodi Sundowns scores more
48%

Mamelodi Sundowns at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Mamelodi Sundowns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Maritzburg Utd 2–1 Mamelodi Sundowns

Maritzburg Utd beat Mamelodi Sundowns 2-1 in Premier Soccer League on March 5, 2022.

The match was played at Harry Gwala Stadium in Pietermaritzburg, KN.