Mamelodi Sundowns 1–1 Maritzburg Utd

Mamelodi Sundowns

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Maritzburg Utd

5/16/2023

Premier Soccer League · Round 24Loftus Versfeld Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Mamelodi Sundowns61%

×Draw25%

Maritzburg Utd14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mamelodi SundownsExpected goals in this matchMaritzburg Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

0.59

Mamelodi Sundowns

1.55

Maritzburg Utd

0.59

Mamelodi Sundowns creates 163% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 77 away

1.94

creates per match

0.64

0.54

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Mamelodi Sundowns

1.94

Maritzburg Utd

0.64

allows per match

Mamelodi Sundowns

0.54

Maritzburg Utd

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mamelodi Sundowns+0.00on par

Maritzburg Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mamelodi Sundowns ↓

Maritzburg Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Mamelodi Sundowns or draw

86%

Mamelodi Sundowns or Maritzburg Utd

75%

Draw or Maritzburg Utd

39%

Winning margin

Mamelodi Sundowns wins by 2+

33%

Maritzburg Utd wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Mamelodi Sundowns 1+ goals

79%

Mamelodi Sundowns 2+ goals

46%

Mamelodi Sundowns 3+ goals

20%

Maritzburg Utd 1+ goals

45%

Maritzburg Utd 2+ goals

12%

Maritzburg Utd 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Mamelodi Sundowns (draw refunded)

81%

Maritzburg Utd (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mamelodi Sundowns at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.54 · 120 matches

Maritzburg Utd away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.16 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mamelodi Sundowns attack 1.94 + Maritzburg Utd defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.55

Maritzburg Utd attack 0.64 + Mamelodi Sundowns defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Mamelodi Sundowns scores more

61%

level

25%

Maritzburg Utd scores more

14%

Mamelodi Sundowns at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Mamelodi Sundowns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff