Maritzburg Utd 2–2 Highlands Park FC

Maritzburg Utd

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Highlands Park FC

11/9/2018

Premier Soccer League · Round 9Harry Gwala Stadium (Pietermaritzburg, KN)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Maritzburg Utd39%

×Draw30%

Highlands Park FC30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maritzburg UtdExpected goals in this matchHighlands Park FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

0.94

Maritzburg Utd

1.11

Highlands Park FC

0.94

Maritzburg Utd creates 18% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 30 away

1.03

creates per match

0.83

1.04

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Maritzburg Utd

1.03

Highlands Park FC

0.83

allows per match

Maritzburg Utd

1.04

Highlands Park FC

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maritzburg Utd+0.00on par

Highlands Park FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maritzburg Utd ↓

Highlands Park FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Maritzburg Utd or draw

70%

Maritzburg Utd or Highlands Park FC

70%

Draw or Highlands Park FC

61%

Winning margin

Maritzburg Utd wins by 2+

16%

Highlands Park FC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Maritzburg Utd 1+ goals

67%

Maritzburg Utd 2+ goals

30%

Maritzburg Utd 3+ goals

10%

Highlands Park FC 1+ goals

61%

Highlands Park FC 2+ goals

24%

Highlands Park FC 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Maritzburg Utd (draw refunded)

56%

Highlands Park FC (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maritzburg Utd at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.04 · 77 matches

Highlands Park FC away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.20 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maritzburg Utd attack 1.03 + Highlands Park FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.11

Highlands Park FC attack 0.83 + Maritzburg Utd defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Maritzburg Utd scores more

39%

level

30%

Highlands Park FC scores more

30%

Maritzburg Utd at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Maritzburg Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff