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Highlands Park FC vs Maritzburg Utd — Premier Soccer League 2018

Highlands Park FC
Highlands Park FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Maritzburg Utd
Maritzburg Utd
8/29/2020Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 22Volkswagen Dobsonville Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Highlands Park FC46%
×Draw29%
Maritzburg Utd25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Highlands Park FC
1.25
Maritzburg Utd
0.83

Highlands Park FC creates 51% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 77 away

creates per match

Highlands Park FC
1.33
Maritzburg Utd
0.64

allows per match

Highlands Park FC
1.03
Maritzburg Utd
1.16

finishing

Highlands Park FC+0.00on par
Maritzburg Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Highlands Park FC ↓

Maritzburg Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Highlands Park FC or draw
75%
Highlands Park FC or Maritzburg Utd
71%
Draw or Maritzburg Utd
54%

Winning margin

Highlands Park FC wins by 2+
21%
Maritzburg Utd wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Highlands Park FC 1+ goals
71%
Highlands Park FC 2+ goals
36%
Highlands Park FC 3+ goals
13%
Maritzburg Utd 1+ goals
56%
Maritzburg Utd 2+ goals
20%
Maritzburg Utd 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Highlands Park FC (draw refunded)
65%
Maritzburg Utd (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Highlands Park FC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.03 · 30 matches

Maritzburg Utd away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.16 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Highlands Park FC attack 1.33 + Maritzburg Utd defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.25

Maritzburg Utd attack 0.64 + Highlands Park FC defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Highlands Park FC scores more
46%
level
29%
Maritzburg Utd scores more
25%

Highlands Park FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Highlands Park FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Highlands Park FC vs Maritzburg Utd

Highlands Park FC and Maritzburg Utd drew 1-1 in Premier Soccer League on August 29, 2020.

The match was played at Volkswagen Dobsonville Stadium in Johannesburg, GA.