Maritzburg Utd 2–1 Bloem Celtic: Result & Stats

Maritzburg Utd

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Bloem Celtic

4/5/2019

Premier Soccer League · Round 20Harry Gwala Stadium (Pietermaritzburg, KN)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Maritzburg Utd41%

×Draw28%

Bloem Celtic30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maritzburg UtdExpected goals in this matchBloem Celtic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.03

Maritzburg Utd

1.25

Bloem Celtic

1.03

Maritzburg Utd creates 21% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 45 away

1.03

creates per match

1.02

1.04

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Maritzburg Utd

1.03

Bloem Celtic

1.02

allows per match

Maritzburg Utd

1.04

Bloem Celtic

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maritzburg Utd+0.00on par

Bloem Celtic+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maritzburg Utd ↓

Bloem Celtic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Maritzburg Utd or draw

70%

Maritzburg Utd or Bloem Celtic

72%

Draw or Bloem Celtic

59%

Winning margin

Maritzburg Utd wins by 2+

18%

Bloem Celtic wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Maritzburg Utd 1+ goals

71%

Maritzburg Utd 2+ goals

36%

Maritzburg Utd 3+ goals

13%

Bloem Celtic 1+ goals

64%

Bloem Celtic 2+ goals

28%

Bloem Celtic 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Maritzburg Utd (draw refunded)

58%

Bloem Celtic (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maritzburg Utd at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.04 · 77 matches

Bloem Celtic away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.47 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maritzburg Utd attack 1.03 + Bloem Celtic defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.25

Bloem Celtic attack 1.02 + Maritzburg Utd defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Maritzburg Utd scores more

41%

level

28%

Bloem Celtic scores more

30%

Maritzburg Utd at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Maritzburg Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff