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Bloem Celtic vs Maritzburg Utd — Premier Soccer League 2018

Bloem Celtic
Bloem Celtic
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Maritzburg Utd
Maritzburg Utd
9/5/2020Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 24ABSA Tuks Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Bloem Celtic47%
×Draw29%
Maritzburg Utd24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bloem Celtic
1.27
Maritzburg Utd
0.82

Bloem Celtic creates 55% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 77 away

creates per match

Bloem Celtic
1.38
Maritzburg Utd
0.64

allows per match

Bloem Celtic
1.00
Maritzburg Utd
1.16

finishing

Bloem Celtic+0.00on par
Maritzburg Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bloem Celtic ↓

Maritzburg Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Bloem Celtic or draw
76%
Bloem Celtic or Maritzburg Utd
71%
Draw or Maritzburg Utd
53%

Winning margin

Bloem Celtic wins by 2+
21%
Maritzburg Utd wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bloem Celtic 1+ goals
72%
Bloem Celtic 2+ goals
36%
Bloem Celtic 3+ goals
14%
Maritzburg Utd 1+ goals
56%
Maritzburg Utd 2+ goals
20%
Maritzburg Utd 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Bloem Celtic (draw refunded)
66%
Maritzburg Utd (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bloem Celtic at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.00 · 45 matches

Maritzburg Utd away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.16 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bloem Celtic attack 1.38 + Maritzburg Utd defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.27

Maritzburg Utd attack 0.64 + Bloem Celtic defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bloem Celtic scores more
47%
level
29%
Maritzburg Utd scores more
24%

Bloem Celtic at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bloem Celtic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Bloem Celtic 3–1 Maritzburg Utd

Bloem Celtic beat Maritzburg Utd 3-1 in Premier Soccer League on September 5, 2020.

The match was played at ABSA Tuks Stadium in Tshwane.