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Maritzburg Utd vs Baroka FC — Premier Soccer League 2018

Maritzburg Utd
Maritzburg Utd
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Baroka FC
Baroka FC
5/21/2022Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 24Harry Gwala Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Maritzburg Utd43%
×Draw30%
Baroka FC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maritzburg Utd
1.19
Baroka FC
0.90

Maritzburg Utd creates 32% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 62 away

creates per match

Maritzburg Utd
1.03
Baroka FC
0.76

allows per match

Maritzburg Utd
1.04
Baroka FC
1.34

finishing

Maritzburg Utd+0.00on par
Baroka FC+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maritzburg Utd ↓

Baroka FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Maritzburg Utd or draw
72%
Maritzburg Utd or Baroka FC
70%
Draw or Baroka FC
57%

Winning margin

Maritzburg Utd wins by 2+
18%
Baroka FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Maritzburg Utd 1+ goals
70%
Maritzburg Utd 2+ goals
33%
Maritzburg Utd 3+ goals
12%
Baroka FC 1+ goals
59%
Baroka FC 2+ goals
23%
Baroka FC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Maritzburg Utd (draw refunded)
61%
Baroka FC (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maritzburg Utd at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.04 · 77 matches

Baroka FC away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.34 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maritzburg Utd attack 1.03 + Baroka FC defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.19

Baroka FC attack 0.76 + Maritzburg Utd defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Maritzburg Utd scores more
43%
level
30%
Baroka FC scores more
28%

Maritzburg Utd at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Maritzburg Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maritzburg Utd vs Baroka FC

Maritzburg Utd beat Baroka FC 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on May 21, 2022.

The match was played at Harry Gwala Stadium in Pietermaritzburg, KN.