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Baroka FC vs Maritzburg Utd — Premier Soccer League 2018

Baroka FC
Baroka FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Maritzburg Utd
Maritzburg Utd
1/26/2020Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 16Peter Mokaba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Baroka FC38%
×Draw33%
Maritzburg Utd30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baroka FC
0.98
Maritzburg Utd
0.83

Baroka FC creates 18% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 77 away

creates per match

Baroka FC
0.81
Maritzburg Utd
0.64

allows per match

Baroka FC
1.03
Maritzburg Utd
1.16

finishing

Baroka FC+0.00on par
Maritzburg Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baroka FC ↓

Maritzburg Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Baroka FC or draw
70%
Baroka FC or Maritzburg Utd
67%
Draw or Maritzburg Utd
62%

Winning margin

Baroka FC wins by 2+
14%
Maritzburg Utd wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Baroka FC 1+ goals
62%
Baroka FC 2+ goals
26%
Baroka FC 3+ goals
8%
Maritzburg Utd 1+ goals
56%
Maritzburg Utd 2+ goals
20%
Maritzburg Utd 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Baroka FC (draw refunded)
56%
Maritzburg Utd (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baroka FC at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.03 · 62 matches

Maritzburg Utd away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.16 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baroka FC attack 0.81 + Maritzburg Utd defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.98

Maritzburg Utd attack 0.64 + Baroka FC defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Baroka FC scores more
38%
level
33%
Maritzburg Utd scores more
30%

Baroka FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Baroka FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Baroka FC 2–1 Maritzburg Utd

Baroka FC beat Maritzburg Utd 2-1 in Premier Soccer League on January 26, 2020.

The match was played at Peter Mokaba Stadium in Pietersburg.