Maritzburg Utd vs Baroka FC — Premier Soccer League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 64+ matches
Maritzburg Utd43%
Baroka FC27%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Maritzburg Utd creates 34% more chances
Season form · 79 home / 64 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under65
- Over35
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No58
- Yes42
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Maritzburg Utd ↓
Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Maritzburg Utd at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.04 · 79 matches
Baroka FC away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.39 · 64 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Maritzburg Utd attack 1.03 + Baroka FC defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.21
Baroka FC attack 0.75 + Maritzburg Utd defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.90
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
Maritzburg Utd at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "Maritzburg Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Mamelodi Sundowns
Orlando Pirates
Bidvest Wits
Cape Town City
Polokwane City
Supersport United
Highlands Park FC
Bloem Celtic
Kaizer Chiefs
Golden Arrows
Amazulu
Chippa United
Black LeopardsBaroka FCMaritzburg Utd
Free State StarsIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Maritzburg Utd host Baroka FC on Saturday, 22 December 2018 at 18:15. The match is part of the Premier Soccer League 2018/2019 season.
Premier Soccer League: Maritzburg Utd 0–1 Baroka FC
Baroka FC beat Maritzburg Utd 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on December 22, 2018.
Goals: J. Dickens (45+4').
The match was played at Harry Gwala Stadium (Pietermaritzburg, KN).