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Maritsa Plovdiv vs Karnobat — Third League - Southeast 2018

Maritsa Plovdiv
Maritsa Plovdiv
FT
3 – 0
Karnobat
Karnobat
4/12/2025Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 29Stadion Maritsa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Maritsa Plovdiv76%
×Draw15%
Karnobat9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maritsa Plovdiv
2.51
Karnobat
0.71

Maritsa Plovdiv creates 254% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 118 away

creates per match

Maritsa Plovdiv
2.44
Karnobat
0.79

allows per match

Maritsa Plovdiv
0.63
Karnobat
2.58

finishing

Maritsa Plovdiv+0.00on par
Karnobat+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maritsa Plovdiv ↓

Karnobat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Maritsa Plovdiv or draw
91%
Maritsa Plovdiv or Karnobat
85%
Draw or Karnobat
24%

Winning margin

Maritsa Plovdiv wins by 2+
54%
Karnobat wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Maritsa Plovdiv 1+ goals
92%
Maritsa Plovdiv 2+ goals
71%
Maritsa Plovdiv 3+ goals
45%
Karnobat 1+ goals
51%
Karnobat 2+ goals
16%
Karnobat 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Maritsa Plovdiv (draw refunded)
90%
Karnobat (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maritsa Plovdiv at home — creates 2.44, concedes 0.63 · 81 matches

Karnobat away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.58 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maritsa Plovdiv attack 2.44 + Karnobat defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.51

Karnobat attack 0.79 + Maritsa Plovdiv defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Maritsa Plovdiv scores more
76%
level
15%
Karnobat scores more
9%

Maritsa Plovdiv at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Maritsa Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Maritsa Plovdiv 3–0 Karnobat

Maritsa Plovdiv beat Karnobat 3-0 in Third League - Southeast on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Maritsa in Plovdiv.