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Karnobat vs Maritsa Plovdiv — Third League - Southeast 2018

Karnobat
Karnobat
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Maritsa Plovdiv
Maritsa Plovdiv
10/5/2024Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 10Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Karnobat25%
×Draw24%
Maritsa Plovdiv51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karnobat
1.15
Maritsa Plovdiv
1.75

Maritsa Plovdiv creates 52% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 81 away

creates per match

Karnobat
1.13
Maritsa Plovdiv
1.59

allows per match

Karnobat
1.91
Maritsa Plovdiv
1.16

finishing

Karnobat+0.00on par
Maritsa Plovdiv+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karnobat ↓

Maritsa Plovdiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Karnobat or draw
49%
Karnobat or Maritsa Plovdiv
76%
Draw or Maritsa Plovdiv
75%

Winning margin

Karnobat wins by 2+
10%
Maritsa Plovdiv wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Karnobat 1+ goals
68%
Karnobat 2+ goals
32%
Karnobat 3+ goals
11%
Maritsa Plovdiv 1+ goals
83%
Maritsa Plovdiv 2+ goals
52%
Maritsa Plovdiv 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Karnobat (draw refunded)
33%
Maritsa Plovdiv (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karnobat at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.91 · 117 matches

Maritsa Plovdiv away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.16 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karnobat attack 1.13 + Maritsa Plovdiv defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.15

Maritsa Plovdiv attack 1.59 + Karnobat defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Karnobat scores more
25%
level
24%
Maritsa Plovdiv scores more
51%

Maritsa Plovdiv at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Maritsa Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Karnobat 0–0 Maritsa Plovdiv

Karnobat and Maritsa Plovdiv drew 0-0 in Third League - Southeast on October 5, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Karnobat.