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Maritsa Milevo vs Karnobat — Third League - Southeast 2018

Maritsa Milevo
Maritsa Milevo
FT
3 – 0
Karnobat
Karnobat
5/31/2025Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 38Stadion Maritsa Milevo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Maritsa Milevo70%
×Draw18%
Karnobat11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maritsa Milevo
2.21
Karnobat
0.76

Maritsa Milevo creates 191% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 118 away

creates per match

Maritsa Milevo
1.84
Karnobat
0.79

allows per match

Maritsa Milevo
0.73
Karnobat
2.58

finishing

Maritsa Milevo+0.00on par
Karnobat+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maritsa Milevo ↓

Karnobat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Maritsa Milevo or draw
89%
Maritsa Milevo or Karnobat
82%
Draw or Karnobat
30%

Winning margin

Maritsa Milevo wins by 2+
46%
Karnobat wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Maritsa Milevo 1+ goals
89%
Maritsa Milevo 2+ goals
65%
Maritsa Milevo 3+ goals
38%
Karnobat 1+ goals
53%
Karnobat 2+ goals
18%
Karnobat 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Maritsa Milevo (draw refunded)
86%
Karnobat (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maritsa Milevo at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.73 · 37 matches

Karnobat away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.58 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maritsa Milevo attack 1.84 + Karnobat defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.21

Karnobat attack 0.79 + Maritsa Milevo defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Maritsa Milevo scores more
70%
level
18%
Karnobat scores more
11%

Maritsa Milevo at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Maritsa Milevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maritsa Milevo vs Karnobat

Maritsa Milevo beat Karnobat 3-0 in Third League - Southeast on May 31, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Maritsa Milevo in Milevo.