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Karnobat vs Maritsa Milevo — Third League - Southeast 2018

Karnobat
Karnobat
FT
0 – 7
HT: 0 – 0
Maritsa Milevo
Maritsa Milevo
11/30/2024Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 19Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Karnobat32%
×Draw25%
Maritsa Milevo43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karnobat
1.27
Maritsa Milevo
1.53

Maritsa Milevo creates 20% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 37 away

creates per match

Karnobat
1.13
Maritsa Milevo
1.16

allows per match

Karnobat
1.91
Maritsa Milevo
1.41

finishing

Karnobat+0.00on par
Maritsa Milevo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karnobat ↓

Maritsa Milevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Karnobat or draw
57%
Karnobat or Maritsa Milevo
75%
Draw or Maritsa Milevo
68%

Winning margin

Karnobat wins by 2+
13%
Maritsa Milevo wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Karnobat 1+ goals
72%
Karnobat 2+ goals
36%
Karnobat 3+ goals
14%
Maritsa Milevo 1+ goals
78%
Maritsa Milevo 2+ goals
45%
Maritsa Milevo 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Karnobat (draw refunded)
42%
Maritsa Milevo (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karnobat at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.91 · 117 matches

Maritsa Milevo away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.41 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karnobat attack 1.13 + Maritsa Milevo defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.27

Maritsa Milevo attack 1.16 + Karnobat defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Karnobat scores more
32%
level
25%
Maritsa Milevo scores more
43%

Maritsa Milevo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Maritsa Milevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karnobat vs Maritsa Milevo

Maritsa Milevo beat Karnobat 7-0 in Third League - Southeast on November 30, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Karnobat.