Maritsa Milevo 1–0 FK Svilengrad: Result & Stats

Maritsa Milevo

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

FK Svilengrad

8/24/2024

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 4Stadion Angel Kanchev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Maritsa Milevo63%

×Draw20%

FK Svilengrad17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maritsa MilevoExpected goals in this matchFK Svilengrad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.00

Maritsa Milevo

2.12

FK Svilengrad

1.00

Maritsa Milevo creates 112% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 18 away

1.84

creates per match

1.28

0.73

allows per match

2.39

creates per match

Maritsa Milevo

1.84

FK Svilengrad

1.28

allows per match

Maritsa Milevo

0.73

FK Svilengrad

2.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maritsa Milevo+0.00on par

FK Svilengrad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maritsa Milevo ↓

FK Svilengrad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Maritsa Milevo or draw

83%

Maritsa Milevo or FK Svilengrad

80%

Draw or FK Svilengrad

37%

Winning margin

Maritsa Milevo wins by 2+

39%

FK Svilengrad wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Maritsa Milevo 1+ goals

88%

Maritsa Milevo 2+ goals

62%

Maritsa Milevo 3+ goals

35%

FK Svilengrad 1+ goals

63%

FK Svilengrad 2+ goals

26%

FK Svilengrad 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Maritsa Milevo (draw refunded)

79%

FK Svilengrad (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maritsa Milevo at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.73 · 37 matches

FK Svilengrad away — creates 1.28, concedes 2.39 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maritsa Milevo attack 1.84 + FK Svilengrad defence 2.39 → ÷2 → 2.12

FK Svilengrad attack 1.28 + Maritsa Milevo defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Maritsa Milevo scores more

63%

level

20%

FK Svilengrad scores more

17%

Maritsa Milevo at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Maritsa Milevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff