FK Svilengrad 2–0 Maritsa Milevo: Result & Stats

FK Svilengrad

FT

2 – 0

Maritsa Milevo

3/8/2025

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 23Stadion Kolodruma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

FK Svilengrad48%

×Draw22%

Maritsa Milevo30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK SvilengradExpected goals in this matchMaritsa Milevo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.48

FK Svilengrad

1.94

Maritsa Milevo

1.48

FK Svilengrad creates 31% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 37 away

2.47

creates per match

1.16

1.79

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

FK Svilengrad

2.47

Maritsa Milevo

1.16

allows per match

FK Svilengrad

1.79

Maritsa Milevo

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Svilengrad+0.00on par

Maritsa Milevo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Svilengrad ↓

Maritsa Milevo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

FK Svilengrad or draw

70%

FK Svilengrad or Maritsa Milevo

78%

Draw or Maritsa Milevo

52%

Winning margin

FK Svilengrad wins by 2+

27%

Maritsa Milevo wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

FK Svilengrad 1+ goals

86%

FK Svilengrad 2+ goals

58%

FK Svilengrad 3+ goals

30%

Maritsa Milevo 1+ goals

77%

Maritsa Milevo 2+ goals

43%

Maritsa Milevo 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

FK Svilengrad (draw refunded)

62%

Maritsa Milevo (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Svilengrad at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

Maritsa Milevo away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.41 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Svilengrad attack 2.47 + Maritsa Milevo defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.94

Maritsa Milevo attack 1.16 + FK Svilengrad defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FK Svilengrad scores more

48%

level

22%

Maritsa Milevo scores more

30%

FK Svilengrad at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FK Svilengrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff