Maritimo 2–0 Sporting CP: Result & Stats

Maritimo

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sporting CP

1/11/2021

Taça de Portugal · Round of 16Estádio dos Barreiros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Maritimo24%

×Draw22%

Sporting CP54%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MaritimoExpected goals in this matchSporting CP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.90

Maritimo

1.20

Sporting CP

1.90

Sporting CP creates 58% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 19 away

1.50

creates per match

2.05

1.75

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Maritimo

1.50

Sporting CP

2.05

allows per match

Maritimo

1.75

Sporting CP

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maritimo+0.00on par

Sporting CP+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maritimo ↓

Sporting CP →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Maritimo or draw

46%

Maritimo or Sporting CP

78%

Draw or Sporting CP

76%

Winning margin

Maritimo wins by 2+

10%

Sporting CP wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Maritimo 1+ goals

70%

Maritimo 2+ goals

34%

Maritimo 3+ goals

12%

Sporting CP 1+ goals

85%

Sporting CP 2+ goals

56%

Sporting CP 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Maritimo (draw refunded)

31%

Sporting CP (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maritimo at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Sporting CP away — creates 2.05, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maritimo attack 1.50 + Sporting CP defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.20

Sporting CP attack 2.05 + Maritimo defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Maritimo scores more

24%

level

22%

Sporting CP scores more

54%

Sporting CP at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sporting CP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff