Maritimo vs Estoril — Primeira Liga 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 83+ matches
Maritimo42%
Estoril32%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Maritimo creates 18% more chances
Season form · 83 home / 85 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under52
- Over48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Maritimo ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Maritimo at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.17 · 83 matches
Estoril away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.74 · 85 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Maritimo attack 1.06 + Estoril defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.40
Estoril attack 1.20 + Maritimo defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.19
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 42%?"
Maritimo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 42% does not mean "Maritimo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
FC Porto
Sporting CP
Benfica
SC Braga
Famalicao
GIL Vicente
Moreirense
Guimaraes
AroucaEstoril
Alverca
Santa Clara
Rio Ave
Nacional
Casa Pia
Estrela
Tondela
AVS
TorreenseIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Maritimo host Estoril on Saturday, 5 February 2022 at 15:30. The match is part of the Primeira Liga 2026/2027 season.
Primeira Liga: Maritimo 0–0 Estoril
Maritimo and Estoril drew 0-0 in Primeira Liga on February 5, 2022.
Maritimo controlled possession (64%) and registered 28 shots to 7.
The match was played at Estádio dos Barreiros in Ilha da Madeira.