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Maritimo vs Estoril — Taça de Portugal 2018

Maritimo
Maritimo
AET
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Estoril
Estoriladvanced
1/27/2021Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · Quarter-finalsEstádio dos Barreiros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Maritimo23%
×Draw22%
Estoril55%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maritimo
1.21
Estoril
1.96

Estoril creates 62% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 12 away

creates per match

Maritimo
1.50
Estoril
2.17

allows per match

Maritimo
1.75
Estoril
0.92

finishing

Maritimo+0.00on par
Estoril+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maritimo ↓

Estoril →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Maritimo or draw
45%
Maritimo or Estoril
78%
Draw or Estoril
77%

Winning margin

Maritimo wins by 2+
9%
Estoril wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Maritimo 1+ goals
70%
Maritimo 2+ goals
34%
Maritimo 3+ goals
12%
Estoril 1+ goals
86%
Estoril 2+ goals
58%
Estoril 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Maritimo (draw refunded)
30%
Estoril (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maritimo at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Estoril away — creates 2.17, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maritimo attack 1.50 + Estoril defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.21

Estoril attack 2.17 + Maritimo defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Maritimo scores more
23%
level
22%
Estoril scores more
55%

Estoril at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Estoril will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maritimo vs Estoril

Maritimo and Estoril drew 1-1 in Taça de Portugal on January 27, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio dos Barreiros in Ilha da Madeira.