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Marítimo vs Academia Anzoátegui — Copa Venezuela 2024

Marítimo
Marítimo
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Academia Anzoátegui
Academia Anzoátegui
7/29/2025Copa VenezuelaCopa Venezuela · Round of 16Cancha de Camurí Chico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Marítimo39%
×Draw36%
Academia Anzoátegui25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marítimo
0.88
Academia Anzoátegui
0.63

Marítimo creates 40% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Marítimo
1.50
Academia Anzoátegui
0.50

allows per match

Marítimo
0.75
Academia Anzoátegui
0.25

finishing

Marítimo+0.00on par
Academia Anzoátegui+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Under
  • Under81
  • Over19

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marítimo ↓

Academia Anzoátegui →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–022%
0–114%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–15%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (22%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
78%22%1.5
45%55%2.5
19%81%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Marítimo or draw
75%
Marítimo or Academia Anzoátegui
64%
Draw or Academia Anzoátegui
61%

Winning margin

Marítimo wins by 2+
14%
Academia Anzoátegui wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Marítimo 1+ goals
59%
Marítimo 2+ goals
22%
Marítimo 3+ goals
6%
Academia Anzoátegui 1+ goals
47%
Academia Anzoátegui 2+ goals
13%
Academia Anzoátegui 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Marítimo (draw refunded)
61%
Academia Anzoátegui (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marítimo at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Academia Anzoátegui away — creates 0.50, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marítimo attack 1.50 + Academia Anzoátegui defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.88

Academia Anzoátegui attack 0.50 + Marítimo defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Marítimo scores more
39%
level
36%
Academia Anzoátegui scores more
25%

Marítimo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Marítimo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Venezuela: Marítimo 0–0 Academia Anzoátegui

Marítimo and Academia Anzoátegui drew 0-0 in Copa Venezuela on July 29, 2025.

The match was played at Cancha de Camurí Chico in Caraballeda.