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Academia Anzoátegui vs Marítimo — Copa Venezuela 2024

Academia Anzoátegui
Academia Anzoáteguiadvanced
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Marítimo
Marítimo
T. Blanco 70' (pen)
A. Graterol 35'
J. Castellano 11'
J. Escobar 82'
J. Altamar 19'
8/6/2025Copa VenezuelaCopa Venezuela · Round of 16Estadio Olímpico General José Antonio Anzoátegui

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Academia Anzoátegui40%
×Draw21%
Marítimo40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Academia Anzoátegui
2.04
Marítimo
2.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Academia Anzoátegui
2.33
Marítimo
2.25

allows per match

Academia Anzoátegui
1.83
Marítimo
1.75

finishing

Academia Anzoátegui+0.00on par
Marítimo+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Academia Anzoátegui ↓

Marítimo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Academia Anzoátegui or draw
60%
Academia Anzoátegui or Marítimo
79%
Draw or Marítimo
60%

Winning margin

Academia Anzoátegui wins by 2+
22%
Marítimo wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Academia Anzoátegui 1+ goals
87%
Academia Anzoátegui 2+ goals
60%
Academia Anzoátegui 3+ goals
33%
Marítimo 1+ goals
87%
Marítimo 2+ goals
60%
Marítimo 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Academia Anzoátegui (draw refunded)
50%
Marítimo (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Academia Anzoátegui at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Marítimo away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Academia Anzoátegui attack 2.33 + Marítimo defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.04

Marítimo attack 2.25 + Academia Anzoátegui defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Academia Anzoátegui scores more
40%
level
21%
Marítimo scores more
40%

Academia Anzoátegui at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Academia Anzoátegui will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
J. Castellano
19'
J. Altamar
35'
A. Graterol
70'
T. BlancoPenalty
82'
J. Escobar

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Academia Anzoátegui vs Marítimo

Academia Anzoátegui beat Marítimo 3-2 in Copa Venezuela on August 6, 2025.

Goals: J. Castellano (11'), J. Altamar (19'), A. Graterol (35'), T. Blanco (70' pen), J. Escobar (82').

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico General José Antonio Anzoátegui in Puerto La Cruz.