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Marisca Mersch vs F91 Dudelange — National Division 2018

Marisca Mersch
Marisca Mersch
FT
3 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
F91 Dudelange
F91 Dudelange
4/14/2024National DivisionNational Division · Round 24Stade Schintgespesch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Marisca Mersch24%
×Draw21%
F91 Dudelange55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marisca Mersch
1.36
F91 Dudelange
2.15

F91 Dudelange creates 58% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 112 away

creates per match

Marisca Mersch
1.60
F91 Dudelange
2.29

allows per match

Marisca Mersch
2.00
F91 Dudelange
1.13

finishing

Marisca Mersch+0.00on par
F91 Dudelange+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marisca Mersch ↓

F91 Dudelange →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Marisca Mersch or draw
45%
Marisca Mersch or F91 Dudelange
79%
Draw or F91 Dudelange
76%

Winning margin

Marisca Mersch wins by 2+
10%
F91 Dudelange wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Marisca Mersch 1+ goals
74%
Marisca Mersch 2+ goals
39%
Marisca Mersch 3+ goals
16%
F91 Dudelange 1+ goals
88%
F91 Dudelange 2+ goals
63%
F91 Dudelange 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Marisca Mersch (draw refunded)
30%
F91 Dudelange (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marisca Mersch at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

F91 Dudelange away — creates 2.29, concedes 1.13 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marisca Mersch attack 1.60 + F91 Dudelange defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.36

F91 Dudelange attack 2.29 + Marisca Mersch defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Marisca Mersch scores more
24%
level
21%
F91 Dudelange scores more
55%

F91 Dudelange at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "F91 Dudelange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

National Division: Marisca Mersch 3–4 F91 Dudelange

F91 Dudelange beat Marisca Mersch 4-3 in National Division on April 14, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Schintgespesch in Mersch.