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F91 Dudelange vs Marisca Mersch — National Division 2018

F91 Dudelange
F91 Dudelange
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Marisca Mersch
Marisca Mersch
10/22/2023National DivisionNational Division · Round 10Stade Jos Nosbaum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

F91 Dudelange63%
×Draw19%
Marisca Mersch18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

F91 Dudelange
2.29
Marisca Mersch
1.13

F91 Dudelange creates 103% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 15 away

creates per match

F91 Dudelange
2.45
Marisca Mersch
1.07

allows per match

F91 Dudelange
1.19
Marisca Mersch
2.13

finishing

F91 Dudelange+0.00on par
Marisca Mersch+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

F91 Dudelange ↓

Marisca Mersch →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

F91 Dudelange or draw
82%
F91 Dudelange or Marisca Mersch
81%
Draw or Marisca Mersch
37%

Winning margin

F91 Dudelange wins by 2+
40%
Marisca Mersch wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

F91 Dudelange 1+ goals
90%
F91 Dudelange 2+ goals
66%
F91 Dudelange 3+ goals
40%
Marisca Mersch 1+ goals
68%
Marisca Mersch 2+ goals
31%
Marisca Mersch 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

F91 Dudelange (draw refunded)
78%
Marisca Mersch (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

F91 Dudelange at home — creates 2.45, concedes 1.19 · 111 matches

Marisca Mersch away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

F91 Dudelange attack 2.45 + Marisca Mersch defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.29

Marisca Mersch attack 1.07 + F91 Dudelange defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

F91 Dudelange scores more
63%
level
19%
Marisca Mersch scores more
18%

F91 Dudelange at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "F91 Dudelange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

National Division: F91 Dudelange 1–0 Marisca Mersch

F91 Dudelange beat Marisca Mersch 1-0 in National Division on October 22, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Jos Nosbaum in Dudelange.