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Marisca Mersch vs AS Jeunesse Esch — National Division 2018

Marisca Mersch
Marisca Mersch
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
AS Jeunesse Esch
AS Jeunesse Esch
11/29/2023National DivisionNational Division · Round 11Stade Schintgespesch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Marisca Mersch35%
×Draw24%
AS Jeunesse Esch41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marisca Mersch
1.52
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.66

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 111 away

creates per match

Marisca Mersch
1.60
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.31

allows per match

Marisca Mersch
2.00
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.45

finishing

Marisca Mersch+0.00on par
AS Jeunesse Esch+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marisca Mersch ↓

AS Jeunesse Esch →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Marisca Mersch or draw
59%
Marisca Mersch or AS Jeunesse Esch
76%
Draw or AS Jeunesse Esch
65%

Winning margin

Marisca Mersch wins by 2+
17%
AS Jeunesse Esch wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Marisca Mersch 1+ goals
78%
Marisca Mersch 2+ goals
45%
Marisca Mersch 3+ goals
20%
AS Jeunesse Esch 1+ goals
81%
AS Jeunesse Esch 2+ goals
49%
AS Jeunesse Esch 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Marisca Mersch (draw refunded)
46%
AS Jeunesse Esch (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marisca Mersch at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

AS Jeunesse Esch away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.45 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marisca Mersch attack 1.60 + AS Jeunesse Esch defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.52

AS Jeunesse Esch attack 1.31 + Marisca Mersch defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Marisca Mersch scores more
35%
level
24%
AS Jeunesse Esch scores more
41%

AS Jeunesse Esch at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "AS Jeunesse Esch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Marisca Mersch vs AS Jeunesse Esch

Marisca Mersch beat AS Jeunesse Esch 4-1 in National Division on November 29, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Schintgespesch in Mersch.