AS Jeunesse Esch 3–1 Marisca Mersch: Result & Stats

AS Jeunesse Esch

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Marisca Mersch

4/20/2024

National Division · Round 25Stade de la Frontière

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

AS Jeunesse Esch54%

×Draw23%

Marisca Mersch23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AS Jeunesse EschExpected goals in this matchMarisca Mersch

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.15

AS Jeunesse Esch

1.88

Marisca Mersch

1.15

AS Jeunesse Esch creates 63% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 15 away

1.62

creates per match

1.07

1.23

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

AS Jeunesse Esch

1.62

Marisca Mersch

1.07

allows per match

AS Jeunesse Esch

1.23

Marisca Mersch

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AS Jeunesse Esch+0.00on par

Marisca Mersch+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Jeunesse Esch ↓

Marisca Mersch →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

AS Jeunesse Esch or draw

77%

AS Jeunesse Esch or Marisca Mersch

77%

Draw or Marisca Mersch

46%

Winning margin

AS Jeunesse Esch wins by 2+

31%

Marisca Mersch wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

AS Jeunesse Esch 1+ goals

85%

AS Jeunesse Esch 2+ goals

56%

AS Jeunesse Esch 3+ goals

29%

Marisca Mersch 1+ goals

68%

Marisca Mersch 2+ goals

32%

Marisca Mersch 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

AS Jeunesse Esch (draw refunded)

70%

Marisca Mersch (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Jeunesse Esch at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.23 · 112 matches

Marisca Mersch away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Jeunesse Esch attack 1.62 + Marisca Mersch defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.88

Marisca Mersch attack 1.07 + AS Jeunesse Esch defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

AS Jeunesse Esch scores more

54%

level

23%

Marisca Mersch scores more

23%

AS Jeunesse Esch at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "AS Jeunesse Esch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AS Jeunesse Esch vs Marisca Mersch

AS Jeunesse Esch beat Marisca Mersch 3-1 in National Division on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Stade de la Frontière in Esch-sur-Alzette.

AS Jeunesse Esch vs Marisca Mersch — National Division 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: AS Jeunesse Esch vs Marisca Mersch