Marino 2–1 Güímar: Result & Stats

Marino

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Güímar

11/3/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 11Estadio Antonio Domínguez Alfonso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Marino64%

×Draw21%

Güímar15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MarinoExpected goals in this matchGüímar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

0.79

Marino

1.91

Güímar

0.79

Marino creates 142% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 28 away

1.53

creates per match

0.68

0.90

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Marino

1.53

Güímar

0.68

allows per match

Marino

0.90

Güímar

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marino+0.00on par

Güímar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marino ↓

Güímar →

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Marino or draw

85%

Marino or Güímar

79%

Draw or Güímar

36%

Winning margin

Marino wins by 2+

38%

Güímar wins by 2+

Team goals

Marino 1+ goals

85%

Marino 2+ goals

57%

Marino 3+ goals

30%

Güímar 1+ goals

55%

Güímar 2+ goals

19%

Güímar 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Marino (draw refunded)

81%

Güímar (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Marino at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.90 · 96 matches

Güímar away — creates 0.68, concedes 2.29 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Marino attack 1.53 + Güímar defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.91

Güímar attack 0.68 + Marino defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 64%?"

Marino scores more

64%

level

21%

Güímar scores more

15%

Marino at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Marino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff