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Güímar vs Marino — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Güímar
Güímar
CANC
00:00
Marino
Marino
3/22/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 30Estadio de Tasagaya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Güímar42%
×Draw25%
Marino34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Güímar
1.53
Marino
1.35

Güímar creates 13% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 95 away

creates per match

Güímar
1.43
Marino
1.03

allows per match

Güímar
1.68
Marino
1.64

finishing

Güímar+0.00on par
Marino+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Güímar ↓

Marino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Güímar or draw
66%
Güímar or Marino
75%
Draw or Marino
58%

Winning margin

Güímar wins by 2+
20%
Marino wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Güímar 1+ goals
78%
Güímar 2+ goals
45%
Güímar 3+ goals
20%
Marino 1+ goals
74%
Marino 2+ goals
39%
Marino 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Güímar (draw refunded)
55%
Marino (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Güímar at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.68 · 28 matches

Marino away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.64 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Güímar attack 1.43 + Marino defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.53

Marino attack 1.03 + Güímar defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Güímar scores more
42%
level
25%
Marino scores more
34%

Güímar at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Güímar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Güímar face Marino (Tercera División RFEF - Group 12)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 returns with Güímar hosting Marino. Match starts March 22, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Güímar host Marino at Estadio de Tasagaya.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.