Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Marino de Luanco vs Lealtad — League #875 2026

Marino de Luanco
Marino de Luanco
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lealtad
Lealtad
1/18/2026League #875League #875 · Group 1 - 19Estadi Municipal de Miramar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Marino de Luanco58%
×Draw27%
Lealtad15%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marino de Luanco
1.43
Lealtad
0.56

Marino de Luanco creates 155% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 7 away

creates per match

Marino de Luanco
1.00
Lealtad
0.71

allows per match

Marino de Luanco
0.42
Lealtad
1.86

finishing

Marino de Luanco+0.00on par
Lealtad+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marino de Luanco ↓

Lealtad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Marino de Luanco or draw
85%
Marino de Luanco or Lealtad
73%
Draw or Lealtad
42%

Winning margin

Marino de Luanco wins by 2+
30%
Lealtad wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Marino de Luanco 1+ goals
76%
Marino de Luanco 2+ goals
42%
Marino de Luanco 3+ goals
17%
Lealtad 1+ goals
43%
Lealtad 2+ goals
11%
Lealtad 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Marino de Luanco (draw refunded)
80%
Lealtad (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marino de Luanco at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.42 · 19 matches

Lealtad away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marino de Luanco attack 1.00 + Lealtad defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.43

Lealtad attack 0.71 + Marino de Luanco defence 0.42 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Marino de Luanco scores more
58%
level
27%
Lealtad scores more
15%

Marino de Luanco at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Marino de Luanco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90+7'
D. Tejera

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Marino de Luanco vs Lealtad

Marino de Luanco and Lealtad drew 0-0 in League #875 on January 18, 2026.

The match was played at Estadi Municipal de Miramar in Luanco.