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Lealtad vs Marino de Luanco — League #875 2026

Lealtad
Lealtad
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Marino de Luanco
Marino de Luanco
A. Lora 54'
A. Basurto 47'
10/5/2025League #875League #875 · Group 1 - 5Estadio Las Callejas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Lealtad28%
×Draw26%
Marino de Luanco46%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lealtad
1.10
Marino de Luanco
1.50

Marino de Luanco creates 36% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 19 away

creates per match

Lealtad
1.00
Marino de Luanco
1.32

allows per match

Lealtad
1.67
Marino de Luanco
1.21

finishing

Lealtad+0.00on par
Marino de Luanco+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lealtad ↓

Marino de Luanco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Lealtad or draw
54%
Lealtad or Marino de Luanco
74%
Draw or Marino de Luanco
72%

Winning margin

Lealtad wins by 2+
11%
Marino de Luanco wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Lealtad 1+ goals
67%
Lealtad 2+ goals
30%
Lealtad 3+ goals
10%
Marino de Luanco 1+ goals
78%
Marino de Luanco 2+ goals
44%
Marino de Luanco 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Lealtad (draw refunded)
37%
Marino de Luanco (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lealtad at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Marino de Luanco away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lealtad attack 1.00 + Marino de Luanco defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.10

Marino de Luanco attack 1.32 + Lealtad defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Lealtad scores more
28%
level
26%
Marino de Luanco scores more
46%

Marino de Luanco at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Marino de Luanco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

47'
A. Basurto
54'
A. Lora

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #875: Lealtad 0–2 Marino de Luanco

Marino de Luanco beat Lealtad 2-0 in League #875 on October 5, 2025.

Goals: A. Basurto (47'), A. Lora (54').

The match was played at Estadio Las Callejas in Villaviciosa.