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Marino de Luanco vs Las Palmas II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Marino de Luanco
Marino de Luanco
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Las Palmas II
Las Palmas II
10/27/2019Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 10Estadi Municipal de Miramar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Marino de Luanco58%
×Draw27%
Las Palmas II15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marino de Luanco
1.42
Las Palmas II
0.56

Marino de Luanco creates 154% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 15 away

creates per match

Marino de Luanco
1.04
Las Palmas II
0.40

allows per match

Marino de Luanco
0.73
Las Palmas II
1.80

finishing

Marino de Luanco+0.00on par
Las Palmas II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marino de Luanco ↓

Las Palmas II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Marino de Luanco or draw
85%
Marino de Luanco or Las Palmas II
73%
Draw or Las Palmas II
42%

Winning margin

Marino de Luanco wins by 2+
30%
Las Palmas II wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Marino de Luanco 1+ goals
76%
Marino de Luanco 2+ goals
41%
Marino de Luanco 3+ goals
17%
Las Palmas II 1+ goals
43%
Las Palmas II 2+ goals
11%
Las Palmas II 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Marino de Luanco (draw refunded)
80%
Las Palmas II (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marino de Luanco at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.73 · 26 matches

Las Palmas II away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marino de Luanco attack 1.04 + Las Palmas II defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.42

Las Palmas II attack 0.40 + Marino de Luanco defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Marino de Luanco scores more
58%
level
27%
Las Palmas II scores more
15%

Marino de Luanco at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Marino de Luanco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Marino de Luanco 1–0 Las Palmas II

Marino de Luanco beat Las Palmas II 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 27, 2019.

The match was played at Estadi Municipal de Miramar in Luanco.