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Las Palmas II vs Marino de Luanco — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Las Palmas II
Las Palmas II
CANC
00:00
Marino de Luanco
Marino de Luanco
3/15/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 29Anexo Gran Canaria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Las Palmas II55%
×Draw28%
Marino de Luanco18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Las Palmas II
1.39
Marino de Luanco
0.66

Las Palmas II creates 111% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

Las Palmas II
1.08
Marino de Luanco
0.69

allows per match

Las Palmas II
0.62
Marino de Luanco
1.69

finishing

Las Palmas II+0.00on par
Marino de Luanco+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Palmas II ↓

Marino de Luanco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Las Palmas II or draw
82%
Las Palmas II or Marino de Luanco
72%
Draw or Marino de Luanco
45%

Winning margin

Las Palmas II wins by 2+
27%
Marino de Luanco wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Las Palmas II 1+ goals
75%
Las Palmas II 2+ goals
40%
Las Palmas II 3+ goals
16%
Marino de Luanco 1+ goals
48%
Marino de Luanco 2+ goals
14%
Marino de Luanco 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Las Palmas II (draw refunded)
75%
Marino de Luanco (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Las Palmas II at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Marino de Luanco away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.69 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Las Palmas II attack 1.08 + Marino de Luanco defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.39

Marino de Luanco attack 0.69 + Las Palmas II defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Las Palmas II scores more
55%
level
28%
Marino de Luanco scores more
18%

Las Palmas II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Las Palmas II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Las Palmas II vs Marino de Luanco — Match Preview

Las Palmas II face Marino de Luanco on March 15, 2020 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Las Palmas II host Marino de Luanco at Anexo Gran Canaria.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.