Marino de Luanco 0–0 Internacional de Madrid

Marino de Luanco

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Internacional de Madrid

2/23/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 26Estadi Municipal de Miramar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Marino de Luanco48%

×Draw30%

Internacional de Madrid22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Marino de LuancoExpected goals in this matchInternacional de Madrid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.74

Marino de Luanco

1.23

Internacional de Madrid

0.74

Marino de Luanco creates 66% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 33 away

1.04

creates per match

0.76

0.73

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Marino de Luanco

1.04

Internacional de Madrid

0.76

allows per match

Marino de Luanco

0.73

Internacional de Madrid

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marino de Luanco+0.00on par

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marino de Luanco ↓

Internacional de Madrid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Marino de Luanco or draw

78%

Marino de Luanco or Internacional de Madrid

70%

Draw or Internacional de Madrid

52%

Winning margin

Marino de Luanco wins by 2+

22%

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Marino de Luanco 1+ goals

71%

Marino de Luanco 2+ goals

35%

Marino de Luanco 3+ goals

13%

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals

52%

Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals

17%

Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Marino de Luanco (draw refunded)

68%

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marino de Luanco at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.73 · 26 matches

Internacional de Madrid away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.42 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marino de Luanco attack 1.04 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.23

Internacional de Madrid attack 0.76 + Marino de Luanco defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Marino de Luanco scores more

48%

level

30%

Internacional de Madrid scores more

22%

Marino de Luanco at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Marino de Luanco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

72'

Álex Arias← Mendi

75'

N. Arkine← Alvar Herrero

77'

Borja Álvarez← Álex Boedo

88'

Chechu

90'

Aitor Núñez← Rubén Ramos

Marino

Internacional

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Oli

72'▲Álex Arias←▼Mendi

77'▲Borja Álvarez←▼Álex Boedo

Marino de Luanco substitutes

AriasÁlvarezSuárezGranaMathePradoBusto

Manager: Marcos Jiménez

75'▲N. Arkine←▼Alvar Herrero

90'▲Aitor Núñez←▼Rubén Ramos

Internacional de Madrid substitutes

ArkineNúñezSánchezGallardoBoselliValero

Match Recap: Marino de Luanco vs Internacional de Madrid

Marino de Luanco and Internacional de Madrid drew 0-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on February 23, 2020.

The match was played at Estadi Municipal de Miramar in Luanco.

Marino de Luanco vs Internacional de Madrid — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Marino de Luanco vs Internacional de Madrid