Internacional de Madrid 1–0 Marino de Luanco

Internacional de Madrid

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Marino de Luanco

Rubén Ramos 53'

10/6/2019

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 7Campo de Fútbol Municipal de Boadilla del Monte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Internacional de Madrid56%

×Draw24%

Marino de Luanco21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional de MadridExpected goals in this matchMarino de Luanco

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.96

Internacional de Madrid

1.75

Marino de Luanco

0.96

Internacional de Madrid creates 82% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 26 away

1.82

creates per match

0.69

1.24

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Internacional de Madrid

1.82

Marino de Luanco

0.69

allows per match

Internacional de Madrid

1.24

Marino de Luanco

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

Marino de Luanco+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Madrid ↓

Marino de Luanco →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Internacional de Madrid or draw

79%

Internacional de Madrid or Marino de Luanco

76%

Draw or Marino de Luanco

44%

Winning margin

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+

31%

Marino de Luanco wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals

83%

Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals

52%

Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals

25%

Marino de Luanco 1+ goals

62%

Marino de Luanco 2+ goals

25%

Marino de Luanco 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)

73%

Marino de Luanco (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Madrid at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.24 · 33 matches

Marino de Luanco away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.69 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Madrid attack 1.82 + Marino de Luanco defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.75

Marino de Luanco attack 0.69 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Internacional de Madrid scores more

56%

level

24%

Marino de Luanco scores more

21%

Internacional de Madrid at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Internacional de Madrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

53'

Rubén Ramos

60'

Junior← Adrián Mance

64'

Mathe← Mika

72'

Abraham Ferreres← César Suárez

80'

Iván Fernández← Borja Álvarez

81'

Daniel Gallardo← N. Arkine

85'

João Pedro← Aitor Núñez

Internacional

Marino

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Marcos Jiménez

60'▲Junior←▼Adrián Mance

81'▲Daniel Gallardo←▼N. Arkine

85'▲João Pedro←▼Aitor Núñez

Internacional de Madrid substitutes

JuniorGallardoPedroHerreroBoselliMarcãoValero

Manager: Oli

64'▲Mathe←▼Mika

72'▲Abraham Ferreres←▼César Suárez

80'▲Iván Fernández←▼Borja Álvarez

Marino de Luanco substitutes

MatheFerreresFernándezGranaGonzálezPradoBusto

Match Recap: Internacional de Madrid vs Marino de Luanco

Internacional de Madrid beat Marino de Luanco 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 6, 2019.

Goals: Rubén Ramos (53').

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Municipal de Boadilla del Monte in Boadilla del Monte.

Internacional de Madrid vs Marino de Luanco — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Internacional de Madrid vs Marino de Luanco