Marino de Luanco 2–3 Getafe II: Result & Stats

Marino de Luanco

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Getafe II

9/7/2019

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 3Estadi Municipal de Miramar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Marino de Luanco49%

×Draw29%

Getafe II23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Marino de LuancoExpected goals in this matchGetafe II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.79

Marino de Luanco

1.31

Getafe II

0.79

Marino de Luanco creates 66% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 14 away

1.04

creates per match

0.86

0.73

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Marino de Luanco

1.04

Getafe II

0.86

allows per match

Marino de Luanco

0.73

Getafe II

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marino de Luanco+0.00on par

Getafe II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marino de Luanco ↓

Getafe II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Marino de Luanco or draw

77%

Marino de Luanco or Getafe II

71%

Draw or Getafe II

51%

Winning margin

Marino de Luanco wins by 2+

23%

Getafe II wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Marino de Luanco 1+ goals

73%

Marino de Luanco 2+ goals

38%

Marino de Luanco 3+ goals

14%

Getafe II 1+ goals

55%

Getafe II 2+ goals

19%

Getafe II 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Marino de Luanco (draw refunded)

68%

Getafe II (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marino de Luanco at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.73 · 26 matches

Getafe II away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marino de Luanco attack 1.04 + Getafe II defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.31

Getafe II attack 0.86 + Marino de Luanco defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Marino de Luanco scores more

49%

level

29%

Getafe II scores more

23%

Marino de Luanco at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Marino de Luanco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff