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Getafe II vs Marino de Luanco — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Getafe II
Getafe II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Marino de Luanco
Marino de Luanco
1/26/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 22Ciudad Deportiva de Getafe - Campo 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Getafe II47%
×Draw28%
Marino de Luanco25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Getafe II
1.31
Marino de Luanco
0.88

Getafe II creates 49% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 26 away

creates per match

Getafe II
0.93
Marino de Luanco
0.69

allows per match

Getafe II
1.07
Marino de Luanco
1.69

finishing

Getafe II+0.00on par
Marino de Luanco+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Getafe II ↓

Marino de Luanco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Getafe II or draw
75%
Getafe II or Marino de Luanco
72%
Draw or Marino de Luanco
53%

Winning margin

Getafe II wins by 2+
22%
Marino de Luanco wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Getafe II 1+ goals
73%
Getafe II 2+ goals
38%
Getafe II 3+ goals
14%
Marino de Luanco 1+ goals
59%
Marino de Luanco 2+ goals
22%
Marino de Luanco 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Getafe II (draw refunded)
65%
Marino de Luanco (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Getafe II at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

Marino de Luanco away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.69 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Getafe II attack 0.93 + Marino de Luanco defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.31

Marino de Luanco attack 0.69 + Getafe II defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Getafe II scores more
47%
level
28%
Marino de Luanco scores more
25%

Getafe II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Getafe II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Getafe II vs Marino de Luanco

Marino de Luanco beat Getafe II 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on January 26, 2020.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Getafe - Campo 2 in Getafe.