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Marino de Luanco vs Covadonga — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Marino de Luanco
Marino de Luanco
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Covadonga
Covadonga
3/7/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 16Estadi Municipal de Miramar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Marino de Luanco57%
×Draw23%
Covadonga20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marino de Luanco
1.79
Covadonga
0.94

Marino de Luanco creates 90% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

creates per match

Marino de Luanco
1.04
Covadonga
1.15

allows per match

Marino de Luanco
0.73
Covadonga
2.54

finishing

Marino de Luanco+0.00on par
Covadonga+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marino de Luanco ↓

Covadonga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Marino de Luanco or draw
80%
Marino de Luanco or Covadonga
77%
Draw or Covadonga
43%

Winning margin

Marino de Luanco wins by 2+
33%
Covadonga wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Marino de Luanco 1+ goals
83%
Marino de Luanco 2+ goals
53%
Marino de Luanco 3+ goals
26%
Covadonga 1+ goals
61%
Covadonga 2+ goals
24%
Covadonga 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Marino de Luanco (draw refunded)
75%
Covadonga (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marino de Luanco at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.73 · 26 matches

Covadonga away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marino de Luanco attack 1.04 + Covadonga defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 1.79

Covadonga attack 1.15 + Marino de Luanco defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Marino de Luanco scores more
57%
level
23%
Covadonga scores more
20%

Marino de Luanco at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Marino de Luanco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Marino de Luanco vs Covadonga

Marino de Luanco beat Covadonga 3-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on March 7, 2021.

The match was played at Estadi Municipal de Miramar in Luanco.