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Covadonga vs Marino de Luanco — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Covadonga
Covadonga
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Marino de Luanco
Marino de Luanco
12/5/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 7Estadio Juan Antonio Alvarez Rabanal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Covadonga42%
×Draw26%
Marino de Luanco33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Covadonga
1.46
Marino de Luanco
1.27

Covadonga creates 15% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

Covadonga
1.23
Marino de Luanco
0.69

allows per match

Covadonga
1.85
Marino de Luanco
1.69

finishing

Covadonga+0.00on par
Marino de Luanco+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Covadonga ↓

Marino de Luanco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Covadonga or draw
67%
Covadonga or Marino de Luanco
74%
Draw or Marino de Luanco
58%

Winning margin

Covadonga wins by 2+
20%
Marino de Luanco wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Covadonga 1+ goals
77%
Covadonga 2+ goals
43%
Covadonga 3+ goals
18%
Marino de Luanco 1+ goals
72%
Marino de Luanco 2+ goals
36%
Marino de Luanco 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Covadonga (draw refunded)
56%
Marino de Luanco (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Covadonga at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

Marino de Luanco away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.69 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Covadonga attack 1.23 + Marino de Luanco defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.46

Marino de Luanco attack 0.69 + Covadonga defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Covadonga scores more
42%
level
26%
Marino de Luanco scores more
33%

Covadonga at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Covadonga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Covadonga vs Marino de Luanco

Covadonga beat Marino de Luanco 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on December 5, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Antonio Alvarez Rabanal in Oviedo.