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Marinhense vs Oliveira Hospital — League #459 2026

Marinhense
Marinhense
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Oliveira Hospital
Oliveira Hospital
R. Fernandes 62'
F. Okenwa 55'
Ze Simao 26'
12/21/2025League #459League #459 · Group C - 13Estádio Municipal da Marinha Grande

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Marinhense28%
×Draw30%
Oliveira Hospital42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marinhense
0.90
Oliveira Hospital
1.17

Oliveira Hospital creates 30% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

creates per match

Marinhense
0.67
Oliveira Hospital
1.00

allows per match

Marinhense
1.33
Oliveira Hospital
1.13

finishing

Marinhense+0.00on par
Oliveira Hospital+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marinhense ↓

Oliveira Hospital →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–115%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Marinhense or draw
58%
Marinhense or Oliveira Hospital
70%
Draw or Oliveira Hospital
72%

Winning margin

Marinhense wins by 2+
10%
Oliveira Hospital wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Marinhense 1+ goals
59%
Marinhense 2+ goals
23%
Marinhense 3+ goals
6%
Oliveira Hospital 1+ goals
69%
Oliveira Hospital 2+ goals
33%
Oliveira Hospital 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Marinhense (draw refunded)
40%
Oliveira Hospital (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marinhense at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Oliveira Hospital away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marinhense attack 0.67 + Oliveira Hospital defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.90

Oliveira Hospital attack 1.00 + Marinhense defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Marinhense scores more
28%
level
30%
Oliveira Hospital scores more
42%

Oliveira Hospital at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Oliveira Hospital will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
Ze Simao
55'
F. Okenwa
62'
R. Fernandes

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Marinhense vs Oliveira Hospital

Oliveira Hospital beat Marinhense 3-0 in League #459 on December 21, 2025.

Goals: Ze Simao (26'), F. Okenwa (55'), R. Fernandes (62').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal da Marinha Grande in Leiria.